Strategic Intelligence · Pax Tecum Global

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Original geopolitical intelligence and strategic analysis for investors, private equity and corporate decision-makers operating across complex international environments.

2026–28
Current Outlook Horizon
6+
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London
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Latest Intelligence Brief

Open Access
Open Access · Free to Read
October 2026 Geo-Economic Intelligence Brief 6 pages

BRICS: The Counterweight Without a Counter-System

What the New Delhi Declaration reveals about the real state of de-dollarisation

The New Delhi Declaration runs to 45 pages and 140 paragraphs, agreed by all 11 BRICS members after an active war involving two of its own. On paper, it reads as a renewed push to de-dollarise. In practice, only four members have built anything resembling real payment infrastructure, and the bloc's single most consequential sanctions-evasion channel runs not through anything BRICS has built, but through informal, UAE-anchored networks sitting entirely outside its architecture. This brief examines what BRICS has actually built versus what it claims — and what that gap means for investors pricing dollar-alternative risk.

BRICS De-Dollarisation Sanctions & Trade Gulf Finance Payment Infrastructure
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Previous Briefings

Open Access
Open Access · Free to Read
June 2026 Strategic Intelligence Brief 6 pages

The New Map: How Trump 2.0 is Reshaping Global Trade, Security and Capital Flows

Tariffs, alliances, dollar leverage and capital flows in a bifurcated global economy

The Trump 2.0 administration has structurally dismantled the legacy assumptions of hyper-globalization, merging tariffs, secondary sanctions and dollar weaponization into a single, highly transactional lever designed to enforce bilateral alignment and reshape global supply chains. In this "neo-royalist" environment, where multilateral frameworks like the WTO are bypassed in favour of direct access to the administration's inner circle, corporate and sovereign success no longer hinges on efficiency or legal compliance alone. This brief maps the resulting risk landscape across alliances, trade architecture, FDI and dollar-denominated capital.

Trade Policy NATO & Security Dollar Weaponization FDI & Capital Flows Supply Chains
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Open Access · Free to Read
June 2026 Geo-Economic Intelligence Brief 6 pages

The US–Iran Deal: A Pause, Not an End

What the agreement actually means for Gulf risk, energy markets and investment strategy

Pakistani mediators have announced that Washington and Tehran have reached an agreement, to be formally signed in Geneva. Markets have responded as though the crisis is over. Yet almost every indicator suggests the agreement looks less like a settlement than an armistice — pausing the conflict without resolving the disputes that caused it. This brief examines what has actually been agreed, what remains unresolved, and what it means for investors and businesses operating in or exposed to the Gulf.

Gulf Risk Energy Markets Strait of Hormuz Iran · US Relations Investment Strategy
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Open Access · Free to Read
May 2026 Strategic Intelligence Brief 8 pages

Fragmentation of the Global Order: Strategic Outlook 2026–2028

Power, Risk and Opportunity in a Multipolar World

The global order is entering a sustained phase of fragmentation — not a temporary disruption, but a structural transition in which power is more distributed, alignment is more conditional and markets are increasingly mediated by politics. This brief examines what that means for capital allocation, market entry and strategic resilience over the 2026–2028 horizon.

Geopolitical Risk US-China Rivalry Supply Chains Capital Allocation Multipolarity
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The Gulf Pivot: Sovereign Capital and Strategic Repositioning

How Gulf states are deploying sovereign wealth, energy leverage and infrastructure investment to reshape their geopolitical weight — and what this means for investors in the region.

Gulf States Sovereign Capital MENA

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